If you’ve been here for a while, you’ve heard us say time and time again that Costa Rica’s green season has always had a certain kind of magic: quieter beaches, dramatic sunsets, lush landscapes, and a slower rhythm that makes transforms Tamarindo into something a little different from its dry-season counterpart.
And in 2026, there may even be one more reason to keep the rainy season on your radar.
According to Costa Rica’s National Meteorological Institute (IMN), via the Tico Times (Costa Rica’s premier English-language news source), El Niño conditions in 2026 are expected to shape the coming months in a way that could make our Pacific region, and Guanacaste generally, drier than usual this year. At the broader climate level, the World Meteorological Organization said in early June that there is an 80% likelihood of El Niño during June through August, with about a 90% chance that it persists through at least November.
We clarify, though, that this does not mean Costa Rica has suddenly slipped into a second dry season.
One of the most magical things about Costa Rica is its tropical weather and the way it helps create the lushness, the rivers, the waterfalls, and the biodiversity that make our country feel so vibrant and alive. But tropical weather has a mind of its own, and that means we fully expect the season will still bring rain. What current forecasts suggest is not a rain-free stretch, but a season that may bring less rain than most rainy seasons – at least, if El Niño has its way.
This is really important to state. Because the honest version – and really the only version worth telling about – is not that rainy season is going on hiatus. It’s that 2026 may bring a hotter, drier, and somewhat more irregular pattern on the Pacific side than a more typical year, especially compared to a wetter La Niña setup.
On the global level, the climate backdrop is real. The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is likely to develop during the middle of 2026 and continue through at least late fall, and broader international climate forecasts are pointing in the same direction. In Costa Rica, the Tico Times reports that the IMN expects hotter, drier – note: not “hot and dry,” just relatively hotter and drier – Pacific slope conditions than usual, if that pattern holds.
(It doesn’t always hold.)
What that means here in Guanacaste is fairly straightforward: rainy season may still look and feel like rainy season, but with a better-than-usual chance of longer dry stretches, more sun hours, and less frequent rain than you’ll see touted online and in travel guides about this time of year.
Again, not guaranteed sunshine. Not a full extra summer. Just a statistically likely sunnier version of one of our favorite travel seasons.
For your purposes, as a traveler, the practical takeaway of all this is fairly simple: if you’re considering visiting us this year, and especially if you’re considering one of our Guanacaste, Costa Rica vacation rentals in 2026, you may have struck gold on the lucky-weather front.
You’re still likely to get the lush landscapes that give green season its name. You’re still likely to have access to the abundant water that feeds our rivers, fills our waterfalls, and keeps Guanacaste looking and feeling alive. It’s just that, if forecasts hold, you may get all of that with a bit more sunshine folded in. In other words, this year’s green season may feel a little more like shoulder season than a typical rainy season, which is a very appealing place to land.
And that makes 2026 an especially good year to look twice at a green season trip if you’ve been on the fence. If part of you has always liked the idea of greener landscapes, lower rates, and fewer crowds, but you’ve worried about giving up too much sunshine, this may be the year to go for it. You’re not booking dry season. You’re not booking an “extra summer.” But you may be booking a season that offers some of shoulder season’s best qualities, with both green season prices and breathing room.
Even with all these sunny predictions, we’d still recommend planning the way we usually recommend planning green season in Tamarindo and greater Guanacaste: put your bigger activities in the mornings, and don’t overengineer your afternoons.
That part doesn’t really change. If you want to surf, sail, ride horses, head out on a nature tour, or book one of the area’s more weather-sensitive experiences, mornings are still the smartest bet. Then, leave yourself some room later in the day, whether that means pool time, lunch that turns into an afternoon, a massage, a nap, or simply the freedom to see what the sky decides to do. That rhythm already suits rainy season beautifully. In 2026, it may suit it even better.
Tamarindo | 4 Bedrooms | 3 Baths | 7 to 10 Guests
If rainy season in Guanacaste is all about lushness, drama, and that wonderful feeling of being surrounded by life, then Casa Xanadu is one of the best seats in the house.
Perched above Tamarindo with extraordinary views over two beaches, Las Baulas National Marine Park, the wildlife-rich estuary, and the mountains beyond, this is the kind of home that makes the weather part of the show. Mornings here begin with a surf check from the window and coffee with a view that seems to stretch forever. And when the skies shift (as they often do in green season), you’ll have a front-row seat to one of the most beautiful transformations in Costa Rica: sun cutting through clouds, hills glowing bright green, and the estuary coming alive below.
That’s a big part of why Casa Xanadu works so well for this season. You don’t have to be out chasing the day every hour for it to feel rich and full, because this villa gives you the sense of immersion people come to Costa Rica for. The open-air living room keeps you connected to the breeze, the landscape, and the changing light, while the air-conditioned bedrooms offer an easy retreat when you want to cool off or settle in. And because you’re just minutes from town and the beach, you can still take full advantage of Tamarindo’s restaurants, cafés, shopping, and surf whenever the mood – or great weather – strikes.
This is also one of those homes that feels especially right for travelers who want rainy season beauty without sacrificing convenience. You have privacy, elevation, and quiet, but not isolation. You may wake to howler monkeys in the trees, spend the morning at the beach, return for lunch with a panoramic view, and then let the afternoon unfold from the terrace while the weather does whatever it’s going to do. In a typical green season, that’s already a wonderful rhythm. In a drier-leaning El Niño year, when you may get even more sunshine folded into the mix, Casa Xanadu promises all the drama, all the greenery, and a little more room to enjoy it.
And here at Stay in Tamarindo, that ease extends beyond the setting. Your concierge is there to help shape the trip around the conditions and around you, whether that means a surf session, a nature-focused outing, a slow lunch in town, or simply the wisdom to do less because the house is already doing so much.
Tamarindo | 5 Bedrooms | 5 Baths | 8 to 12 Guests
Casa Ventana is one of those homes that makes green season look exceptionally good. Set high above Tamarindo, with sweeping jungle, estuary, and Pacific horizon views, it delivers exactly what so many travelers want at this time of year: space, perspective, and a feeling of being wrapped into the landscape rather than merely staying beside it.
When the hills turn green and the estuary fills out, you’re really going to fall in love with this view. You can watch the light move over the trees, catch the changing weather as it rolls across the coast, and still have the ocean sitting quietly out on the horizon.
That makes Casa Ventana a particularly strong rainy-season choice, because it gives you the best of both worlds. The home is visually expansive and deeply connected to nature, but it is also comfortable, polished, and easy to live in. The full-length infinity pool is reason enough to stay home for an afternoon, especially if the day begins bright and shifts later on. The chef-ready kitchen and gas grill invite long lunches and dinners at home. Each bedroom has its own en-suite bath, which makes the house especially easy for families or friend groups who want shared spaces and private retreat in equal measure. And when the weather is variable, as it often is in green season, you need a villa where every hour doesn’t have to be an outing – when the home itself gives you so much to enjoy.
Casa Ventana is also ideal for the kind of traveler who wants Tamarindo close at hand, but not right on top of them. Beach access is easy, Pangas is nearby, and town is well within reach, but the house itself feels elevated and tucked away. In a year when El Niño may bring somewhat drier conditions to the Pacific side, that balance becomes even more appealing. You still get the lushness and softer rhythm that make green season so special, but you may also get more bright mornings, more usable outdoor time, and more chances to enjoy the view with blue sky in the mix.
Then, of course, there is the Stay in Tamarindo Elite Service Standard layer: breakfast prepared, snacks and juices handled, the house quietly maintained, and your concierge ready to help you shape the trip around the weather, the season, and exactly the kind of day you want to have. That’s what turns a beautiful rainy-season home into a beautifully easy rainy-season stay.
If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to try Guanacaste rainy season for yourself, 2026 may be just the ticket. With El Niño expected to bring hotter, drier conditions to Costa Rica’s Pacific coast than in a more typical year, this may be one of those rare sweet spots: greener landscapes, fewer crowds, and rainy-season value, with a better-than-usual chance of sunshine folded in.
At Stay in Tamarindo, we know that a great green-season trip is not just about booking a beautiful home. It’s about booking the right home, in the right setting, with the right support behind it. Whether you’re looking for sweeping ocean views, a pool made for long afternoons, staff-prepared breakfasts, or the kind of privacy that lets you settle fully into the season’s slower rhythm, we’re here to help you choose well. And because we live here, watch the weather here, and plan trips here every day, we can help you make the most of what this year may bring, while still keeping your expectations grounded in the realities of tropical travel.
We’re here to help you find the Guanacaste, Costa Rica vacation rentals that fit the trip you actually want to take. We’ll help you plan around the season, stay flexible where it matters, and shape a stay that feels just right for you, whether that means surf in the mornings, slower afternoons by the pool, or a little bit of everything.
So go ahead, take another look at green season. You may just find it’s exactly the moment you’ve been waiting for. And when you’re ready, get in touch and let’s start planning your stay.